Somewhere, Over the Rainbow

Nobel laureate and all around pinhead Mohammed El Baradei and his cronies at the International Atomic Energy Agency will be removing seals from Iranian nuclear “research” facilities on Wednesday so that the Iranians can resume nuclear fuel production. It is unclear if this is in response to a recent request by the Iranians to the IAEA, or the result of longstanding objections to the inhibition of their nuclear weapons program. It stands to reason nevertheless that in the wake of the Israeli government’s confusion resulting from Ariel Sharon’s massive stroke, that the Iranians are going to take every advantage of the situation to try to move quickly forward with uranium enrichment.

The question of a military strike against Iran at this point is really more of a “when” rather than and “if”. The prospect of less stable and confident leadership in Israel makes it seem more likely that the US will have to take out critical nuclear sites on its own. As I have mentioned before, it was unlikely that short of a massive missile launch by the Israelis against Iranian targets, they probably lack the capability to hit enough targets to ensure the existence of the Jewish state.

In my opinion the lingering “if” question might be put to rest if the North Korean threat is thrown into the mix. It seems to me that there are basically two kinds of oppressive dictatorial regimes on the planet these days: suicidal and well…not suicidal. We can all agree that Iran fits quite nicely into the suicidal category, while Kim Jong Il’s DPRK narcissistic cult of personality regime personifies the other. By definition, a suicidal dictatorship is undeterrable and can only be dealt with ultimately by force or revolution. The strategic decision-politics aside-to take out the Iranian nukes essentially hinges on the likelihood of a popular revolutionary movement rising up and deposing key figures by subverting disloyal Army units against the Revolutionary Guard. I have no idea what the chances are that this might occur, but perhaps it is time to add a factor to the equation.

Whenever possible, I subscribe to the “kill two birds with one stone” theory of conflict resolution. This was recently achieved in Libya when its dictator opted for surrendering his WMD program instead of the program that he feared the President might be considering. Even though our invasion in Iraq has yielded very little in the way of taking WMDs off the street, it made Khaddafi crap his pants and give up his. Going ahead with a comprehensive pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites might just be the bitter medicine that arouses the latent survival instincts of the man who shot a 36 on his first round of golf. There is a good chance that an overwhelming intervention in Iran combined with aggressive naval maneuvers near the Korean peninsula might cause the great leader to rethink his divine status. Being born at the end of a rainbow won’t prevent you from attaining a fluorescent green glow afterall.